MOGADISHU — Efforts by Somalia’s political leaders and the international community to bring Puntland President Said Abdullahi Deni and Jubaland President Ahmed Mohamed Islam Ahmed Madobe to Mogadishu have reportedly stalled over disagreements about guarantees for a proposed electoral agreement.

People familiar with the negotiations said the two regional leaders want any agreement reached on Somalia’s elections to include clear and formal guarantees, including a defined role for the international community in ensuring that the agreement is implemented.

Deni and Ahmed Madobe are reportedly opposed to an arrangement in which international partners would merely facilitate negotiations. Instead, they want the international community’s responsibilities to be explicitly incorporated into the final political agreement.

The disagreement has emerged as international partners intensify efforts to bring Somalia’s federal government, regional administrations and opposition groups together around a common framework for the country’s next electoral process.

One of the central disputes concerns who would be responsible for guaranteeing implementation if the political parties reach an agreement.

While some Somali political actors reportedly favour limiting the international community to a facilitating role, Puntland and Jubaland are seeking stronger international involvement, arguing that credible guarantees are necessary to build confidence among the parties.

Reports indicate that Villa Somalia, sections of the opposition and some international partners are relatively close in their positions regarding the international community’s role, leaving Puntland and Jubaland as key parties pressing for stronger guarantees.

The disagreement has consequently become one of the main obstacles to moving the planned political dialogue into a formal stage.

The electoral dispute comes amid broader disagreements between Somalia’s federal government, federal member states and opposition politicians over the country’s electoral model, the administration of elections and the political arrangements that should govern the next transition.

Efforts to bring Deni and Ahmed Madobe to Mogadishu had been viewed as an important opportunity to launch a wider political dialogue and resolve the outstanding differences.

For now, however, the two regional leaders have not agreed to participate under the proposed arrangements, leaving the timing of the next round of negotiations uncertain.

If the parties can reach agreement on the question of guarantees and the role of international partners, it could open the way for formal negotiations on Somalia’s electoral framework. Failure to resolve the dispute, however, could further deepen political divisions between Mogadishu and the federal member states.

The dispute over international guarantees is more significant than a procedural disagreement over negotiations. For Puntland and Jubaland, the central question appears to be whether any electoral agreement will have mechanisms capable of preventing one side from changing or ignoring the deal after it has been signed.

Deni and Ahmed Madobe appear to be seeking an external layer of political insurance. Their position suggests that they do not consider a Somali-only political commitment sufficient and want international actors to have a clearly defined responsibility if the agreement breaks down.

For Villa Somalia, accepting such a role could carry political costs. A formal international guarantee could be interpreted as limiting the federal government’s freedom to implement an electoral arrangement on its own terms. This may explain why there appears to be greater support for an international facilitation role rather than a formal guarantee.

The disagreement also highlights the deeper trust deficit between Mogadishu and some federal member states. The election dispute is therefore not simply about when or how elections will be held; it is also about who controls the political process and what safeguards exist against unilateral decisions by the federal government.

If Puntland and Jubbaland maintain their position, the international community may face pressure to move beyond mediation and become a guarantor of the political settlement. That could make negotiations more credible for the regional states, but it could also make the eventual agreement more difficult to reach.

Ultimately, the success of the electoral talks may depend on whether Somalia’s political actors can agree not only on the election rules themselves, but also on who will guarantee that every side respects the rules once the agreement is signed.