MOGADISHU — Former Somali Foreign Minister Abdisaid Muse Ali has claimed that several countries may be considering withdrawing recognition of Somalia’s Federal Government, raising questions about the country’s political legitimacy and the deepening dispute between Mogadishu and regional administrations.

Muse Ali, however, did not identify the countries allegedly considering such a move or provide details of any official decisions. His remarks come amid continuing tensions between the federal government and some federal member states over constitutional amendments, elections and the distribution of political authority.

He also raised the possibility of Puntland separating from the rest of Somalia, suggesting that a move supported by the region’s population could create a serious political challenge for Mogadishu’s claim to represent the entire country. Puntland has maintained a prolonged dispute with the federal government and, in March 2024, announced that it would no longer recognize federal institutions pending agreement on a mutually accepted constitutional framework.

The distinction between recognition of a state and recognition of its government is central to understanding the issue. Somalia remains a member of the United Nations, and a foreign government’s decision to downgrade diplomatic relations with Mogadishu would not, by itself, revoke Somalia’s status as a sovereign state. A dispute over which authorities legitimately represent the country would instead depend on the specific diplomatic and legal measures taken by other governments.

Puntland’s possible separation would raise a separate and complex set of questions concerning Somalia’s constitutional order, territorial integrity, the wishes of its population and international recognition. Public support could carry political significance, but it would not automatically establish an independent state or guarantee recognition by other countries.

The dispute has intensified as Puntland and other political actors challenge decisions taken by the federal government, while Mogadishu continues to defend the country’s unity and the authority of federal institutions. In September, Prime Minister Hamza Abdi Barre dismissed the prospect of Puntland’s separation, arguing that the regional administration’s position did not necessarily reflect the wishes of Puntland’s population.

Muse Ali’s remarks highlight the seriousness of Somalia’s ongoing federal crisis, but the claim that foreign countries are preparing to withdraw recognition of the federal government remains unverified in the absence of named countries or official announcements. Any assessment of the claim should distinguish political speculation from formal diplomatic action.

The Puntland question is equally significant. Continued disagreement over constitutional changes, elections and federal authority could deepen the divide between Mogadishu and regional administrations. Whether the dispute leads to renewed negotiations, prolonged institutional fragmentation or a more explicit debate over Puntland’s political status will depend on decisions by Somali leaders and the willingness of the parties to reach a negotiated settlement.