GAROWE (SD) – Abdulkadir Mumin, the emir of Islamic State in Somalia (ISS), is confirmed to be trapped and in hiding within the Cal Miskaad mountain range as an unprecedented joint offensive by Puntland Darwish forces and U.S. Special Operations Command enters a decisive phase.

The campaign escalated on November 25 with a major ground-air assault involving over 200 U.S. special forces personnel targeting entrenched ISIS positions in the Baalade hills. Precision strikes by MQ-9 Reaper drones have focused on leadership compounds, resulting in the death of a senior ISIS commander and approximately 15 foreign fighters from Syria, Turkey, and Ethiopia.

Puntland troops simultaneously dismantled an illicit gold mining operation—a primary revenue stream for the group—and destroyed associated weapons caches. This directly targets the faction’s economic sustainability.

Intelligence estimates suggest nearly 200 fighters remain besieged, facing critical shortages of food, ammunition, and medical supplies. Reliance on foraged sustenance indicates severe logistical collapse. Security officials report Mumin is actively evading capture by moving between mountain caves, though his mobility and command capacity are deemed severely degraded.

Abdulkadir Mumin, a former imam in the United Kingdom with a history of radical preaching, represents the transnational, ideologically exported nature of the ISIS threat in Somalia, distinguishing it from the locally focused Al-Shabaab.

A senior Puntland Maritime Police Force (PMPF) commander declared the group is in its “final stages,“ with operations continuing to ensure Mumin has no viable escape route.

This operation marks a significant tactical escalation and a clear strategic choice. By committing special forces to a direct, sustained ground role alongside Puntland troops, the U.S. is prioritizing the neutralization of the ISIS affiliate over the more dominant Al-Shabaab. This suggests:

A “Vanguard” Threat Perception: The U.S. may view ISS, though smaller, as a more direct transnational threat due to its explicit loyalty to the ISIS core and its potential to attract and deploy foreign fighters, posing a greater long-term danger to Western interests.

A Theater-Specific Partnership: The deep collaboration with Puntland underscores a reliance on capable regional actors. It rewards Puntland’s relative stability and projects its authority, which could have long-term implications for Somalia’s federal balance of power.

2. The Economics of Insurgency Under Siege:
   The destruction of the gold mining operation is operationally critical. ISIS affiliates globally have relied on natural resource exploitation (e.g., oil in Syria, minerals in Africa). Severing this lifeline in an isolated mountain environment is a textbook collapse strategy. If sustained, it will force fighters to surrender, starve, or attempt a breakout into hostile territory.
3. The Leadership Question and “Whack-a-Mole” Dynamics:
   Killing or capturing Mumin would be a major symbolic and operational victory. However, the history of such campaigns shows that decapitation can lead to factionalization or the rise of an even more radical successor. The key will be ensuring simultaneous, irreversible degradation of the group’s mid-tier leadership, recruitment networks, and economic infrastructure to prevent regeneration.
4. The Al-Shabaab Factor:
   This intense focus on ISS creates a strategic vacuum that Al-Shabaab could exploit. As U.S. and Puntland resources concentrate in the Bari region, Al-Shabaab may seize the opportunity to consolidate territory, extort resources, or launch attacks elsewhere in Somalia. The two groups are rivals, and weakening one could inadvertently strengthen the other unless Somali National Army (SNA) and African Union Transition Mission in Somalia (ATMIS) forces fill the gap.
5. Long-Term Implications for Somalia:
   A successful operation would:

Eliminate a Destabilizing “Third Actor”: Remove a complicating factor in Somalia’s conflict landscape.

Boost Puntland’s Profile: Potentially increasing its leverage in negotiations with Mogadishu over resources and political arrangements.

Test U.S. Staying Power: The risk is a “clear and leave” scenario. Lasting security requires a credible, local holding force to prevent re-infiltration, which will depend on Puntland’s capacity and political will.

Bottom Line: This is not just a counterterrorism raid; it is a deliberate campaign to annihilate a specific terrorist entity. Its success hinges on sustained joint operations, intelligent follow-through to prevent resurgence, and careful management of the second-order effects on Somalia’s broader conflict ecosystem. The battle for the Cal Miskaad mountains may well determine whether the Islamic State can maintain a lasting foothold in the Horn of Africa.