NAIROBI (SD) – The Somali Future Council, comprising the administrations of Puntland, Jubaland, the National Dialogue Forum, Somali Parliament MPs, and independent politicians, held a meeting in Nairobi with representatives from the international community.

The international representatives who attended the meeting included diplomats from the United Nations, the European Union, the United Kingdom, the United States, and others concerned with Somalia’s political affairs.

During the meeting, discussions focused on the situation in Somalia, particularly the critical political phase the country is undergoing, and how to urgently resolve issues related to the Constitution and elections.

These talks come at a time when Somalia’s federal government is planning a major conference to address the country’s situation, though the Future Council has imposed several conditions.

Following the meeting with the international partners, the Somali Future Council issued a press statement outlining its position regarding the invitation to the national dialogue conference extended by the Federal Government of Somalia, scheduled to begin in Mogadishu on February 1, 2026. However, they have set conditions for their participation.

The Council emphasized that President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud must take confidence-building measures and that the dialogue should be meaningful.

The opposition stated that it is essential to completely halt the amendments to the provisional Federal Constitution of 2012, which they argue is the only agreed-upon basis for any consensus.

They also stressed the need to reach a consensus on an electoral process for federal government institutions, while cautioning against rushing into an unfeasible “one person, one vote” system at this time.

The success or failure of the planned Mogadishu conference now hinges on these pre-negotiations. The opposition has effectively secured the preparatory phase. If the FGS refuses their conditions, the conference will either be boycotted by key actors (rendering it meaningless) or will proceed under a cloud of illegitimacy. If the FGS accepts, it will be seen as capitulating to the opposition, weakening President Hassan Sheikh’s authority.

The Nairobi meeting represents a major strategic victory for the Somali opposition. They have internationalized their grievances, structured their demands into a coherent platform, and positioned themselves as indispensable partners for any resolution. The ball is now in President Hassan Sheikh’s court. He must choose between a humbling compromise with his rivals or a dangerous gamble on proceeding without them, which could fracture the country further.

The international community, faced with two competing Somali leadership blocs, must now navigate carefully to avoid taking sides openly while pushing for a compromise that prevents state collapse. The path to the February 2026 conference is now a minefield, and the opposition holds the map.