MOGADISHU (SD) – A new report by the International Crisis Group says the conflict between the Federal Government of Somalia and Al-Shabaab has entered a renewed stalemate, following shifts in territorial control after government gains made during the 2022–2023 military offensives.

According to the report, Al-Shabaab has regained influence in several areas from which it had previously been pushed out, highlighting the group’s resilience despite sustained military operations by Somali forces and their international partners.

The ICG noted that while the Federal Government continues to maintain control of Mogadishu and other key strategic towns, it is facing increasing military and political pressure.

The report identified several factors limiting the government’s progress, including shortcomings in military capacity, internal political disputes, and declining levels of international support for Somalia’s security operations.

The organization urged Somali authorities and international partners to accelerate security sector reforms, strengthen coordination among security forces, and improve the long-term effectiveness of counterinsurgency efforts.

The report also recommended considering political dialogue as part of a broader strategy to end the conflict, arguing that military operations alone are unlikely to deliver lasting peace and stability.

The ICG concluded that Somalia is at a critical stage where sustained political cooperation, security reforms, and continued international engagement will be essential to preventing the conflict from becoming further entrenched.

The report suggests that Somalia’s counterinsurgency campaign has reached a difficult phase, with military gains proving difficult to sustain. Its call for both security reforms and eventual political dialogue reflects a growing view among some analysts that a long-term solution will require more than military action alone.